Season Review 2016-17

Matches: 2016 – 2017 | 2016-2017 Pictures | League Table | Statistics

Trivia

• Celtic seal the Treble, and go undefeated domestically.

• One of the greatest seasons in Celtic’s history.
• 50th anniversary season of the European Cup & Lisbon Lions victory in 1967.
• Brendan Rodgers installed as new manager at Celtic, taking over from Ronny Deila.
• Media sycophants out in force for Sevco before season even started.
• No Dundee Utd in top tier, as they were relegated last season. They will be joining Hibs in battle for the top spot in the second tier.
• Poor start in Rodgers first game, as Celtic lose to Gibraltar’s Lincoln Red Imps 0-1, but still recover to win over two legs 3-1 in aggregate.
• Celtic go on to win league unbeaten. League was practically over by Halloween as Celtic were way too strong for all.
• Many great players this season: Dembele creating a big name for himself across Europe with some very fine performances that belie his age. A precocious talent. Armstrong exceeding expectations. Scott Brown rejuvenated. Rogic is growing in stature. Sinclair has turned his career around with plenty of great goals.
• Celtic finish league campaign with some records:
  • 30 – Celtic secured the biggest margin of points in Scottish football.
  • 34 – The Hoops secured a record number of victories in a Scottish league season
  • 106 – Highest points tally ever in Scotland
  • 38 – A new, unbeatable run of games without defeat in a single season.
  • 8 – Celtic win with 8 games to spare, beating the old record of 7 games.
• League record: 38 games, 34 wins, 4 draws, 0 defeats, 106 pts, 106 goals.
• Celtic defeat Aberdeen in the league cup final, now concluded again in the first half of the season.
• Celtic sealed treble with a very hard fought victory over Aberdeen in Scottish Cup final, coming from behind and winning with an injury time winner by Rogic.
• Celtic sweep the player of the year awards, with Scott Sinclair the winner for most. Brendan Rodgers wins for the manager awards.
• Defeated TheRangers in our first ever league meeting between the two, a 5-1 victory, and then humiliate them by same score in final league game v them in the season. Five wins out of Six v Rangers, the other was a draw and Celtic wrongly not given a penalty late in the game.
• The day after Brendan Rodgers received the league trophy at end of the season and looking forward to the Scottish Cup final to seal the treble, Davie Moyes (who actually was the favourite for the Celtic managers job) resigned as manager of Sunderland as they finished bottom of the English Premiership.

Europe

• Celtic enter European competition to go three rounds to get to the Champions League, and qualify thru to the group stages.
• Poor start in Rodgers first game, as Celtic lose to Gibralter’s Lincoln Red Imps 0-1, but still recover to win over two legs 3-1 in aggregate.
• Celtic make it through to Champions League group stages for first time in 3 years.
• Another group of death: Barca, Borussia M, Man City & Celtic.
• Celtic lose to Barcelona 7-0, our worst European result, but they are some side, with one of the greatest front lines ever.
• Dembele makes name for himself across Europe with fine performances, and a double at Celtic Park v Man City.
• Celtic sadly out at Group Stage, coming bottom of the group. Went to the second last game, but too tough a group.
• Lot achieved and a lot to be proud of despite the bottom price, there has been on the pitch clear progress.
• No wins in away matches in any of the matches.

Season Review

With 13,000 fans in attendance, Brendan Rodgers arrived in Paradise for the mother of all honeymoons. But as Gordon Strachan would concede, Celtic honeymoons can end very abruptly indeed as Strachan experienced himself after his debut competitive match as manager against Artmedia in the Champions League saw Celtic lose humiliatingly 4-0.

Rodgers’ managerial debut followed in a similar vein as Celtic lost 1-0 to Gibraltarian minnows Lincoln Red Imps. It was another humiliating defeat for Celtic, but unlike Artmedia it wasn’t fatal and thereafter Celtic progressed 3-1 on aggregate to the next qualifier.

That debut defeat in some ways reflected the reality that Rodger had in front of him, any success was not inevitable, and various commentators and bloggers outwith of Celtic were already banging the drum for TheRangers who had just been promoted to the top tier for the first time, with one criticising Rodgers and incredibly claiming he would in time adopt a philosophy in line with their manager. Various pundits in the league had confidently marked TheRangers for the league title. How they were to come to eat their own words.

Celtic faced FC Astana with a makeshift defence of Ambrose and Eoghan O’Connell. Despite a poor display in Kazakhstan, Roberts showed great persistence to stop the ball going out of play and assisted Griffiths for a vital equaliser. The 2nd leg featured another pivotal moment when Rodgers’ first signing, Moussa Dembele, scored his first goal for the club with an injury time penalty taking Celtic to the final qualifier 3-2 on aggregate.

The final hurdle was Israeli team Hapoel Be’er Sheva. The divergence between Rodgers and Deila quickly became evident. A year prior, Celtic led 2-0 v Malmo at half time only to see ex-Celt Berget score a decisive 95th minute goal for his new side. This time Celtic showed resilience to win 5-2 after Hapoel reduced a 3-0 half time lead to 3-2 after 57 minutes, with Brown scoring a crucial late goal, to help take Celtic to a comprehensive 5-2 home victory.

However the tie was far from over. An abysmal performance in Israel followed, with Janko performing incredibly badly. Fortunately a MOTM display from new signing Kolo Toure, and Sviatchenko coming off the bench, proved sufficient for a 5-4 aggregate win. Celtic were back in the Champions League for the first time in 3 years.

Celtic got the league campaign off to a flier at Tynecastle when yet another new signing made an instant impact. Scott Sinclair came off the bench for a debut goal to make it 2-1 with 10 minutes left. The result was reminiscent of MON’s debut league game via a 2-1 win at Tannadice, with added karma for Jamie Walker’s dive.

In September Celtic faced TheRangers at home. They had got carried away since their penalty shoot-out ‘win’ before ‘Hibsing’ the final! #GoingFor55 rang around Ibrox before the hilarity of drawing their opening game to Hamilton. While not as iconic as the Demolition Derby, Celtic skelping TheRangers 5-1 once again drew comparisons to MoN’s first season as his compatriot secured a 4 goal margin victory. Dembele scored a hat trick, the first such feat against a side from Ibrox since Stevie Chalmers in 1966.

As Celtic began the Champions League campaign on the back of a derby triumph, what could possibly go wrong? Everything was the answer. Celtic suffered its heaviest ever European defeat (0-7) in the Nou Camp, despite the genius of the then Barcelona it remained embarrassing. On the other hand, they were side studded with an exceptional front line and few could handle them, as was to be the case for a number of teams that season.

Before facing Man City (next European competition opponents), Celtic had thrashed Kilmarnock 6-1 with Coulibaly scoring a consolation goal for Killie with a 35 yard screamer past interim Celtic goalkeepr De Vries. This led to Celtic’s Dutch goalkeeper being subbed at the interval. From that point onwards, Craig Gordon reclaimed the #1 jersey and never looked back. It signified Brendan’s authority & assertiveness without resorting to stubbornness, since his original intention was to replace Gordon with De Vries, again another indicator to the difference between Rodgers and Deila, the latter being indecisive.

Next up was Guardiola’s Man City in the Champions league, who started the season with 10 consecutive wins and were the inform team in England. Their team contained players like Aguero, Silva, Sterling and Fernandinho, so understandably Celtic were given no chance. What followed was a thrilling & entirely deserved 3-3 draw, with an electric atmosphere. Almost as notable as Dembele’s acrobatic 2nd goal was Rodgers’ offensive sub in replacing Bitton with Griffiths, in contrast to Guardiola’s defensive sub of replacing Nolito with Fernando. A year after consecutive losses to Molde, the support had our Celtic back.

Thereafter Celtic finished bottom of our UCL group without a win, but concluded with 3 valuable draws in both games with Man City & away to Gladbach. While defensive flaws need to be ironed out ahead of next season’s European campaign, Rodgers had created a solid foundation to build on.

In November Celtic won the League Cup, the 100th major trophy in the club’s history. It was secured by a glorious late Dembele winner against TheRangers in the semi, before easily dispatching Aberdeen 3-0 in the final.

Domestically in the League, Celtic became a winning machine from September onwards. Before the Hogmanay clash at Ibrox, Celtic had won 14 consecutive league games.

In that spell the one game that would epitomise the season as a whole was a 4-3 win at Fir Park. Celtic were 2-0 down at the break, before Roberts equalised on the 70th minute. Incredibly Motherwell scored 60 seconds later to retake the lead, only for Celtic to equalise another 60 seconds later. True to form, Rogic won Celtic the game 4-3 at the death with a sublime low drive. Not only was the team’s resilience evident, but the team’s tactical fluidity was demonstrated when Rodgers deployed a 3-4-3 diamond formation to great effect. Previously, tactics were never as moden/sohpisticated at Celtic (at least since Stein’s days), Celtic had caught up and were clearly benefitting from Rodgers experience.

In the final fixture of 2016, Celtic faced TheRangers at Ibrox. After a very lacklustre opening half hour, Dembele’s thunderbolt equaliser suddenly electrified the team. From then on Celtic dominated and should have added several more goals to Sinclair’s winner. Regardless, Celtic moved 19 points clear with a game in hand to ensure a happy new year.

In February Celtic defeated Aberdeen 1-0 at home courtesy of a header from Boyata, a player Rodgers brought in from the cold due to the Belgian’s positive attitude in training, an admirable clear indicator that he would reward effort. This was followed by a 5-2 win away to St Johnstone, including a sublime team goal of the season whereby every player touched the ball in a 25-pass move before Lustig’s ‘rabona’ assisted Dembele to score. It was to be replayed repeatedly, and the support were all loving it.

Celtic began March by thrashing Inverness 4-0 in the Highlands, to secure an incredible 22nd consecutive league win and move 27 points clear after 27 league matches. The next game proved that football isn’t played on paper alone. St Mirren at home in the Scottish Cup quarter final, easy peasy right? Not quite as it turned out.

With St Mirren already 1-0 up, the start of the 2nd half provided a fortunate omen for the end of the season. Dembele diverted an opposing free kick against the crossbar, which was inches away from giving them a 2-0 lead. Celtic immediately equalised on our way to a 4-1 win and progressed to the semi-final. Rodgers praised the 2nd tier side as being the best team Celtic had faced domestically at that point, and showed the fighting qualities of the side.

Celtic brushed aside a rare disappointment (a 1-1 home draw v TheRangers) to clinch six-in-a-row league titles in style at Tynecastle, with a record 8 games remaining. Sinclair scored a wonderful hat trick, while Roberts and Armstrong both scored spectacular goals to destroy Hearts 5-0. It was perfect symmetry, both for Sinclair individually as well as Celtic collectively, to secure the title at the venue of our league opener.

Celtic were on course for the treble, and on this road three weeks later Celtic once again faced TheRangers in a cup semi final. Sinclair and McGregor scored as Celtic cruised to a 2-0 win. TheRangers only solace was Celtic’s 32 goal talisman (Dembele) going off injured. With TheRangers traipsing out of Hampden, to the sound of ‘This is how it feels to be Celtic’, Moussa had the last laugh, and Rodgers was on the road to immortality.

Next up was the small matter of Celtic’s biggest ever win at Ibrox for 100 years. Celtic humiliated TheRangers 5-1 on the park, while their fans disgraced themselves off the park with Sinclair’s 25th goal of the season eliciting monkey gestures from two racists. Lustig’s stunner to make it 5-1, Brown bossing the midfield and Jozo’s epic tackle on Miller all enhanced an already monumental victory. It all vindicated Rodger’s management.

On May 21st 2017, Celtic made history by becoming the first Scottish team to go an entire league season domestically unbeaten since 1899. Celtic’s 2-0 win over Hearts also secured the incredible feat of a record 106 league goals and 106 points. Trophy day included merited applause for the departing Kris Commons – a great club servant who scored 91 goals – as well as cheers for Efe’s backflip.

On May 27th 2017, Celtic made yet more history with an unprecedented unbeaten domestic treble. If ever there was a way to win a 4th treble, it was with this match in injury time. The raw feeling of ecstasy when the gallus Rogic skilfully guided the ball past the Aberdeen goalie: invincible. Rodgers dreams were coming true.

For this to be achieved in the 50th anniversary week of Lisboa 1967 is a fitting tribute to the eternal legacy of Jock Stein and the Lisbon Lions.

Brendan Rodgers had transformed Celtic in a treble winning first season, another parallel with Martin O’Neill. Even he could not have foreseen such a perfect campaign, particularly back on that hot day in Gibraltar. In many ways Rodgers had put into practice tactics and formations (e.g. high tempo pressing) what Deila could only talk about in theory or bang on about conditioning. Even the most optimistic Celtic fan may have doubted if the side could win 11 and draw 1 out of 12 games against Aberdeen & TheRangers, especially after the unimpressive form of the past year.

It was also heartening to see Celtic attendances greatly improved from recent years, as the waiting list for season tickets returned. Last season, it was admittedly often a chore to watch the first team. Not only had the atmosphere from the support improved (with a lot of praise required to be directed towards the Green Brigade taking advantage of the new modern terracing section), the morale of the squad had too. Whether it’s the Paddy-KT bromance, the Kolo-Yaya song in the dressing room or the stadium wide tifo in honour of ’67, the camaraderie had returned to Paradise.

Brendan’s man management skills had been top class, aided by the highly capable backroom staff such as Chris Davies et al. So many players had improved considerably from the previous year, but special mention for Boyata, Forrest and Armstrong. Transfer wise, acquiring Dembele, Sinclair and Toure have all raised standards considerably, as well as raised the value of the squad.

To quote yet another former Northern Irish Celtic manager, this isn’t the end it’s just the beginning.

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A Statistical Preview of Rosenborg’s Champions League Opponent Celtic

Date: July 24, 2017Author: Matt 1 Comment

A Statistical Preview of Rosenborg’s Champions League Opponent Celtic

Check out the preview of Rosenborg from a Celtic perspective at our sister site, The Backpass Rule.

When the Champions League third qualifying round occurred, there was one fixture pulled out of the bowl that was of particular interest personally. The good folks at Stratagem that have been providing us with the raw data we have been using this season analyzing the Eliteserien have also providing us with data from other leagues around Europe. We were hoping that we could use that data to provide some statistical insight about a possible European opponent that a Norwegian club in Europe might draw. The first few fixtures did not provide such an opportunity, but then Rosenborg got Celtic FC from Glasgow, Scotland. Given that I started tracking and analyzing football stats because I could not find any advanced stats for Scottish Football and the SPFL, this was a special draw for me.

Celtic have had some Norwegian connections over the years with a few former Norwegian players and currently have Kristoffer Ajer on their books, though Ajer spent last year on loan to SPFL Premiership club Kilmarnock. Most reports were positive about Ajer’s time on loan at Killie. Furthermore, Ajer has a chance to be in the squad Wednesday with Celtic missing normal first choice centre back Dedryck Boyata due to a knee injury. Of course, Ronny Deila was the manager for Celtic, where he won the league twice and the League Cup once. However, most Celtic supporters saw Deila’s time as a disappointment due to failures in Europe (including two defeats to Molde in the Europa League). At the end of the 2015/2016 Ronny Deila resigned from Celtic and the Hoops appointed former Liverpool Manager Brendan Rodgers to replace him.

With Rodgers at the helm, Celtic won the treble of the Scottish Premiership, Scottish Cup, and Scottish League Cup. In fact, Celtic did not lose a domestic game in Scotland, only drawing to rival Rangers once (while also beating them 5-1, 2-1, 5-1 in the League, 1-0 in the League Cup Semi-final, and 2-0 in the Scottish Cup Semi-final), Inverness Caledonian Thistle, and Ross County. Celtic beat second place Aberdeen in both the final of the Scottish League Cup and Scottish Cup and finished 30 points ahead of the Dons in the league table.

With such dominance in Scotland, it is no surprise that Celtic had very impressive advanced stats last season. Tracking the stats on my Scottish Football site The Backpass Rule, they had an expected goals of 96.78 highest in the league, an expected goals against of 31.19 lowest in the league, and an expected goal difference of 66.49 also highest in the league. Their expected goal ratio, or their expected goals for divided by expected goals for and against of 0.76, yet again the highest in the SPFL. They had a TSR, or Total Shot Ratio, of 0.73, meaning they took 73% of the total shots taken in their games, while their opponents only had 27% of the shots. They had the same 0.73 rate for TSoR, or Total Shots on Target Ratio, which is the same as the above metric except for shots on target. They were dominant in every traditional and advanced metric we have for Scottish Football, and their results reflected it.

One of Celtic’s best players last season was Englishman Scott Sinclair. Sinclair won the Scottish Player Association Player of the Year award and was 4th in the SPFL in expected assists with 9.82, 2nd in expected goals with 12.96, and 6th in expected secondary assists with 2.64. He lead the league in xGAS at 25.42, or expected goals, assists, and secondary assists combined. He was crucial to Celtic’s attack in the SPFL last season, scoring 21 goals and creating 8 assists in the league last season, contributing to 27% of Celtic’s league goals last season.

Sinclair’s pace on the wing, along with either the speedy James Forrest (xG 6.04, xA 4.0, xSA 1.8) or new signing from Aberdeen Jonny Hayes (xG 6.24, xA 10.6 highest in the league, xSA 3.2) will cause trouble for the slower Rosenborg fullbacks. They will need to find a way to limit and restrict Sinclair and whoever Celtic has on the other wing, or it will be very difficult for Rosenborg to advance to the playoff round of the Champions League Qualifiers.

If the speed and attacking power of Scott Sinclair were not enough for Kare Ingebrigtsen to worry about, there is also Celtic’s superstar striker Moussa Dembele. The young Frenchman was a revelation for the Bhoys last season, scoring 17 goals and notching 8 assists in the league. Despite picking up an injury and not playing after mid-April, Dembele led the SPFL in expected goals with 14.46. He averaged 0.69 xG per 90 and 0.18 xG per shot, which means he is getting high quality shots when he shoots. All but one of his league goals came from within the “danger zone” centrally inside the box. He is able to use his strength and speed to get into high quality shooting positions. He did so both in the league last season and in Celtic’s matches in the Champions League, scoring both against Manchester City and Borussia Monchengladbach in the group stages.

With Sinclair and either Forrest or Hayes on the wing and Dembele at striker, Celtic will have a blazing quick three pronged attack that will be tough for Rosenborg to keep quiet. Last season Celtic thrived on their pace and using space on their attack. They could use that pace to counter-press teams in their own half to quickly win the ball back when they lose it, even doing the same in matches against Manchester City in the Champions League. They will be looking to do the same Wednesday at Celtic Park against Rosenborg. Rosenborg will need to counteract that speed somehow. Their best bet might be to try and keep it tight in the back, counter attack, and try to be within striking distance heading back to Trondheim. However, this is not a game plan that would play to Rosenborg’s strengths.

As previously mentioned, Celtic will be shorthanded in the back. After being thought to be on his way out, Dedryck Boyata took his chance in his first start in the middle of the season and put in a solid performance. He established himself in the Celtic starting XI from then on as a very capable centre back and his absence will be a big miss for Celtic for this fixture. Celtic have not signed any other center backs in the summer transfer season as of yet, so they will likely put Jozo Simunovic and Danish defender Erik Sviatchenko in the back. Simunovic was on his way to Torino this time last year after he missed much of the year before due to injury, but he failed his medical and returned to Celtic. Once healthy, Simunovic proved to be a solid defender and provided one of the best tackles in Europe in a derby match against Rangers striker Kenny Miller.

Sviatchenko however, has found himself the odd man out when both Boyata and Simunovic are healthy. He sometimes has suspect positioning and does not have the same pace that Simunovic and Boyata do. With Boyata out, it will likely be the Dane Sviatchenko in back for Celtic. He is someone Rosenborg should look to exploit over the fixture. Letting Niklas Bendtner get physical with Sviatchenko could be a strategy that works. Fredrik Midtsjo is someone that could also force Sviatchenko into mistakes if he gets the opportunity.

The likely starting fullbacks for Celtic will be Swede and former Rosenborg player Mikael Lustig and young Scotland international left back Kieran Tierney. Lustig has lost a step or two since his Rosenborg days, but is still very capable on the attack. Meanwhile, the 20 year old Tierney seems like he is on the verge of stardom. Tierney is both a great on ball one on one defender and an incredibly gifted passer.

Often times last season, and possibly Wednesday to help mitigate the injury issues Celtic face in their defense (In addition to Boyata, right back Christian Gamboa injured himself as well while he was on international duty with Costa Rica), Celtic deployed a back three. Tierney would be the link between the back, helping to defend and then being a crucial player in the attacking half for Celtic. He was a workhorse in those situations covering seemingly the entire field. He had 8 assists in the league, 7.66 xA (0.31 per 90), 1.48 Key Passes per 90, and 2.17 xSA (0.09 per 90). Tierney is the best defender Celtic have and an important cog in their attack. Rosenborg would be wise to avoid his side when attacking and make sure to mark him when he has the ball.

Behind Tierney and the rest of the defense will be Scottish keeper Craig Gordon. Before Celtic, Gordon was bought by Sunderland from SPFL Club Hearts for £9,000,000. However, Gordon’s time in England was frustrating, as it was marred by constant injury. He was signed on a free by Ronny Deila for Celtic and he has been vital for Celtic since then.

In all of his seasons for Celtic, Gordon has finished with good stats. In 2015/2016, he had the highest Saves Above Expected in the league at 2.72 and Keeper Rating of 103.61 (stats I discuss here ). Last season, he had the 4th best Saves Above Expected of 2.97, Keeper Rating of 104.50, as well as the third best Goals Against minus Expected Goals Against of -2.97. Despite finishing behind a few keepers in the league, Gordon’s stats actually improved slightly last season. Last season, Gordon was actually brought to the bench by Brendan Rodgers in favour of Dorus de Vries. Rodgers claimed it was due to de Vries’ abilities to distribute the ball. However, after two shaky starts by de Vries, Craig Gordon was restored to the starting spot and never let it go.

Celtic was probably the toughest available opponent for Rosenborg in the draw. The two clubs are similar in that they are the “big fish in a small pond” football wise. Neither Scottish nor Norwegian football can compete financially with the billions of leagues like the EPL. However, it seems Celtic are the stronger of the two sides with Rosenborg as the underdog to progress. The Trondheim club does have a slight advantage being midway through their season, while Celtic has only played two competitive matches against Linfield of Northern Ireland in the previous round of Champions League Qualifying (which had plenty of controversy surrounding it).

Clubs like Celtic and Rosenborg need to look for any inefficiency or advantage they can find over the giants of European football in recruitment, analysis, and running their clubs. It seems the opportunity to use analytics to get an advantage is gone for these clubs, as the giant clubs now have analytics departments. The Rosenborg’s and Celtic’s of the world need to find the next advantage. Celtic have improved in the year since Ronny Deila left and they have done well in recruitment and shown great improvements since Brendan Rodgers has taken over. Meanwhile, Rosenborg have seemingly taken a step back so far this season in the Eliteserien. While top of the table, the dominating Rosenborg that most think of when they think of Norwegian football has yet to be seen. Perhaps Rosenborg can look to Celtic last season as a model forward, but they will need to be at their absolute best to progress past them to the next round of the Champions League qualifiers.

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